Monday, March 16 — Mitzpe Institute

The campaign against Iran has passed the point where any observer could call it limited — 1,700 military-industrial targets destroyed, the supreme leader’s personal aircraft in ashes at Mehrabad, and Israeli intelligence formally opening a systematic effort to dismantle the Quds Force’s franchise infrastructure across the region. The northern front, which, as we have discussed, is further heating up: three IDF divisions are operating inside southern Lebanon, and a request for 190,000 additional reservists is sitting on the cabinet’s docket. The regime in Tehran issued evacuation warnings for Dubai and Doha, threatened the Gerald Ford’s supply chain, and ordered its citizens shot on sight for protesting.

A note before we dive in today. I’ll be away from the desk Tuesday and Wednesday for personal observances that come back to back on the Hebrew calendar this year. The next Daily Brief publishes Thursday. Our full publication schedule is here.

Flash Brief: The Day in 90 Seconds or Less

“Quds file” opened: Israeli intelligence launches a systematic campaign to dismantle IRGC Quds Force infrastructure across the Middle East, destroying 17 of 20 cargo planes. See The War Today.
200+ targets in 24 hours: IAF strikes command centers, weapons production, and defense systems across Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz; destroys the supreme leader’s aircraft at Mehrabad. See The War Today.
Cluster munitions on central Israel: Iran fires seven salvos, dispersing submunitions across Bnei Brak, Ramat Gan, Petah Tikva, and Holon; eight wounded, 108 hospitalized in 24 hours. See The War Today.
450,000 reservists requested: IDF asks the government to raise the mobilization ceiling by 190,000 for a possible large-scale Lebanon ground operation. See The War Today.
Three divisions in Lebanon: 91st, 146th, and 36th Divisions conduct raids across southern Lebanon; Hezbollah surveillance posts destroyed; UNIFIL fired upon three times. See The War Today.
MBS: “Keep hitting Iran hard”: Saudi crown prince advises Trump to sustain the campaign; Gulf states absorb 2,000+ missiles and drones but decline to strike Iran publicly. See Israel and the World.
Hamas secret letter demands total war: Kan News reveals Hamas told Mojtaba Khamenei it will never relinquish its weapons and called for simultaneous activation of all fronts. See The War Today.
NIS 2.6 billion emergency procurement: Cabinet approves classified defense transfer; budget deadline March 31 holds the coalition together — or dissolves it. See Inside Israel.
London and Antwerp: Al-Quds Day marchers wave Khamenei posters despite a ban; 12 arrested; Haredi Jews including children attacked in Antwerp as Jew-hate spikes across Europe. See Israel and the World.

Below: what Hamas’s secret letter to Mojtaba Khamenei reveals about the axis fracturing under pressure, why the 450,000-reservist number is the most consequential figure in the brief, and the nvestigation that found 78,665 IRGC citations laundered into Wikipedia — during Tehran working hours.

Israel is operating inside Iran with aerial superiority, inside Lebanon with ground forces, and inside the Quds Force’s logistics network with a dismantlement campaign that will take months to feel but years to rebuild. Iran’s response — cluster munitions on apartment buildings, evacuation threats against “allied” capitals, 500 citizens arrested for alleged espionage — is the response of a regime that cannot match the operational tempo being imposed on it. The question is no longer whether the regime is weakened. The question is whether anyone has a plan for what replaces it — and whether the northern front absorbs the resources that answer requires.

The War Today

IAF Destroys Supreme Leader’s Aircraft and Opens “Quds File” as Campaign Outpaces Timeline

The Israeli Air Force struck more than 200 targets across western and central Iran over the past 24 hours, including command centers with active regime operatives, defense systems, and weapons production and storage sites in Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz. In a precise overnight strike, the IAF destroyed an aircraft used by the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — and later by senior military personnel — at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, which the IDF described as a strategic regime asset used to coordinate with proxy groups and advance military procurement through domestic and international flights. Earlier this month, the IAF destroyed 16 Quds Force transport aircraft at the same airport. A senior Israeli security official says that Israeli intelligence has opened what it calls the “Quds file” — a systematic campaign to dismantle IRGC Quds Force infrastructure across the Middle East. Israel has eliminated seven senior Iranian officials in Lebanon and destroyed 17 of 20 Quds Force cargo planes used to ferry weapons and components to Hezbollah and other proxies. Since the start of the war, more than 1,700 military-industry assets in Iran have been struck, including major IRGC-linked firms and companies producing critical missile, air defense, naval, cyber, and satellite components. The IDF estimates 4,000–5,000 Iranian soldiers killed, with tens of thousands more wounded — many from the internal security forces and Basij. Military officials report declining morale in Iranian ballistic missile units, including refusals to serve and desertions. An IDF spokesperson confirms the military plans at least three more weeks of operations with thousands of additional targets identified. Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly set the eve of Passover (April 1) as a possible operational conclusion date—though in reality facts on the ground will make that decision. The United States has begun an airlift to resupply the IDF with ammunition. On the home front, in the last day or so Iran fired seven missile salvos at Israel — at least one carrying cluster bomb warheads that dispersed submunitions across central Israel, wounding eight people in Bnei Brak, Ramat Gan, Petah Tikva, and Holon, and causing fires at multiple sites. Over the past 24 hours, 108 people were hospitalized as a result of the conflict. The IRGC threatened to “pursue and kill” Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says that Tehran demands a permanent end to all U.S. and Israeli strikes, firm international guarantees, and reparations before agreeing to end the war — demands he called “what reason dictates,” not conditions. He claimed the regime “enjoys complete stability” and that new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “in excellent health” and “present at his post.” U.S. intelligence, however, shows the elder Khamenei considered his son “not very bright” and “unqualified to be leader.” Trump says he believes Mojtaba may be “possibly dead.” Defense Secretary Hegseth said Mojtaba is “wounded and likely disfigured.” There has been no audio or video appearance since his appointment. Iran’s chief of police has ordered shoot-on-sight enforcement against anyone taking to the streets “at the request of the enemy.” Security forces arrested 500 citizens on espionage and public-order charges, including 20 in West Azerbaijan Province accused of passing location data on military assets to Israel. Separately, Hamas sent two letters to Mojtaba Khamenei over the weekend — one diplomatic and public, the other “secret.” The secret letter demands “unification of the arenas,” declares Hamas will not “compromise its weapons under any circumstances,” calls for simultaneous activation of “all fronts” alongside “brothers in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq,” and dismisses normalizing Arab states as a “losing camp.” Trump said he is considering seizing Kharg Island outright — where the regime is preventing technical workers from evacuating despite ongoing fires and further strike threats — because it would deal a decisive economic blow to the regime. He told reporters: “We can destroy the pipelines on Kharg Island in 5 minutes, and the Iranians can’t do anything about it.” Senior Israeli officials report that additional “major steps” inside Iran are being planned jointly with Washington, but acknowledged that regime change is proceeding more slowly than initially estimated and war objectives may need reassessment.

Assessment The campaign is operating at a pace the regime cannot absorb and the international community has not yet digested. Seventeen hundred military-industrial targets destroyed, an entire logistics fleet eliminated, the supreme leader’s personal aircraft turned to wreckage on the tarmac — and the IDF is still publishing target lists. The “Quds file” is the operationally important development: Israel is not limiting itself to degrading Iran’s direct-fire capability but dismantling the franchise infrastructure that allows Tehran to regenerate through its proxies. Araghchi’s demands — reparations, permanent guarantees, international mechanisms — are, flatly, a pipe dream [apparently a pipe filled with something illegal in Iran]. Hamas clearly knows its patron is weakened and it is racing to lock in a commitment to total war before Tehran calculates that cutting its losses is cheaper. Hamas explicitly told the supreme leader — the one who apparently cannot appear on camera — that abandoning the military option is betrayal. That is not a letter of solidarity. The cluster munitions on central Israel are Iran’s crudest remaining tool — indiscriminate, militarily irrelevant, designed to produce pressure on Israel’s resolve.

IDF Requests 450,000 Reservists as Ground Operations Expand in Southern Lebanon

The IDF has asked the government to approve raising the maximum reserve mobilization quota to 450,000 soldiers — roughly 190,000 above the current ceiling approved in January — in preparation for a possible large-scale ground operation in Lebanon and extended presence in enemy territory. The 91st “Galilee” Division launched a raid late Saturday in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon, encountering and eliminating several Hezbollah operatives. The military preceded the troop movement with extensive IAF strikes and artillery fire to clear threats in the operational environment. The 146th Reserve Division remains deployed in the western sector; the 36th Division is conducting a raid in the Rab al-Thalathine area. The IDF described the operations as intended to “establish a forward defense that will create an additional security layer for the residents of the north.” Troops also identified and destroyed Hezbollah surveillance posts used to monitor Israeli forces on two separate occasions. UNIFIL reported that its peacekeepers were fired upon three times during patrols around bases in Yatar, Dayr Kifa, and Qallawiyah — likely by Hezbollah, though UNIFIL used the term “non-state armed groups.” Military officials assess that Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal has been degraded by approximately 90% compared to pre-war levels, but the organization has reverted to guerrilla tactics. Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare a list of infrastructure targets and civilian sites used by Hezbollah, with the aim of making clear to Beirut that it bears responsibility for terror originating from its territory. Discussions on expanding the buffer zone are underway with the U.S. administration. Foreign Minister Sa’ar flatly denied reports of imminent direct talks with Lebanon and denied that Israel had told Washington it was running critically low on interceptors. French President Macron offered to host ceasefire talks in Paris, calling on Hezbollah to halt escalation and Israel to cease large-scale strikes — and the IDF dismissed the interceptor-shortage story, saying it prepared for a prolonged conflict and has no current shortage.

Assessment The 450,000-reservist request is the most consequential number in this brief. It tells you the political leadership has accepted — or is about to accept — that the Lebanon front requires a campaign-scale commitment, not a holding action. The twice-postponed surprise operation against Hezbollah is now being replaced by a force-intensive conventional approach. That is the cost of deferral. The 91st Division’s eastern-sector raid and the three-division deployment across southern Lebanon are the operational prelude. The reservist request tells us that something larger is coming. The 90% arsenal degradation is real but misleading if read as a measure of threat elimination — Hezbollah’s shift to guerrilla tactics means the remaining 10% is being employed through methods that degrade Israel’s technological advantages. No electronics to intercep. Small cells that don’t mass for airstrikes. Anti-tank teams that force house-to-house clearing. Macron’s Paris offer is irrelevant. UNIFIL getting shot at by Hezbollah while describing the shooters as “non-state armed groups” is Resolution 1701 writing its own obituary.

Inside Israel

Government Transfers NIS 2.6 Billion for Emergency Defense Procurement

The cabinet approved a transfer of NIS 2.6 billion to the Defense Ministry for classified equipment, citing “urgent and immediate need” to provide an operational response to the war. Of that sum, NIS 1.5 billion was allocated from the 2026 state budget — which still requires final Knesset approval by month’s end. The transfer is separate from the NIS 30 billion defense increase approved in the amended budget last week and the NIS 13 billion security reserve. Combined with prior allocations, total war-related additions to the state budget now exceed NIS 32 billion. The budget’s March 31 deadline remains the structural constraint. Failure to pass triggers automatic Knesset dissolution.

Braverman Seeks Leak Probe as Suspension Threatens London Posting

Tzachi Braverman — until recently Netanyahu’s chief of staff and the government’s designated ambassador to the United Kingdom — has asked the Civil Service Commission to investigate what his attorney calls the leak of an internal disciplinary recommendation to suspend him for six months. The appeal, addressed to acting Commissioner Daniel Hershkowitz, says Braverman learned from the press that the discipline division had recommended suspension following a March 9 Zoom hearing conducted during the war. His lawyer calls the leak’s “sole purpose” to harm his standing as Israel’s London envoy and exert pressure on the commissioner before a final decision. The filing also alleges unequal treatment: Braverman’s legal team was denied access to the prosecution opinion recommending suspension even as its substance appeared in the media. Braverman remains under investigation in the “midnight meeting” affair — centered on suspicions that he warned former Netanyahu spokesman Eli Feldstein about a covert military investigation into the leak of a classified document to the German tabloid Bild and suggested he could “put it out” if it touched the Prime Minister’s Office. A magistrate’s court lifted key restrictions on March 5, including a bar on contact with Netanyahu, while still prohibiting discussion of the investigation with the prime minister. Prosecutors have recommended six months’ suspension from public service. Both the Movement for Quality Government and opposition leader Lapid called for the suspension of his appointment after his questioning became public. Foreign Minister Sa’ar said Braverman was lawfully appointed.

Assessment The London posting is not a cushy diplomatic appointment. It is Israel’s primary European embassy during a war in which Britain’s government is poorly navigating its own red-green alliance, IRGC property ownership in Kensington, and a domestic Jew-hate environment that produced a banned Al-Quds Day march this weekend [more on that below]. Sending an envoy under active investigation for obstruction in a national-security-linked case to that posting creates a vulnerability. Braverman’s leak complaint may be procedurally valid — the discipline division should not be trying cases in the press — but the underlying problem remains. Regardless of political motivation [and the investigation clearly was], the criminal investigation, the disciplinary issue, and the ambassadorial appointment are converging in a way that makes all three harder to resolve cleanly.

Israel and the World

MBS Tells Trump “Keep Hitting Iran Hard” as Gulf States Calculate the Day After

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been regularly advising President Trump during the war to “keep hitting the Iranians hard,” White House officials say — echoing the late King Abdullah’s instruction to “cut off the head of the snake.” MBS and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed held talks and issued a joint statement declaring that Iran’s attacks on GCC countries represent “a dangerous escalation that threatens the region’s security and stability.” The IDF assesses that massive direct Iranian missile and drone strikes have fundamentally shifted Sunni Arab states’ view of regional security. They fear being left alone with a resurgent Iran if the United States disengages, with only Israel to protect them. Iran has attacked Abraham Accords signatories (UAE, Bahrain) and non-signatories (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait) alike. Bahrain’s air defenses have intercepted 125 missiles and 211 drones since the war began. Saudi Arabia destroyed 10 drones over Riyadh and its eastern region on Sunday. A drone struck a fuel depot at Dubai International Airport [still burning at press time]. Iranian drones hit Oman’s largest oil storage at the Port of Salalah. A drone struck Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, destroying an Italian remotely piloted aircraft. At least one person was killed by an Iranian missile in Abu Dhabi. The Iranian Armed Forces issued evacuation warnings to civilians in Dubai and Doha, claiming U.S. officers are “hiding” in those areas. The U.S. State Department ordered non-emergency personnel and families out of Oman and the Baghdad embassy told U.S. citizens to leave Iraq immediately. In Iraq, a U.S.-Israeli strike killed Abu Ali al-Amiri, a commander of the Iran-backed Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, along with several group members. The Trump administration plans to announce a multinational naval escort coalition for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — several countries have agreed in principle, though some remain cautious about operating in an active war zone. South Korea is considering deploying naval asset. Japan refused, saying it “will not send ships to the Strait of Hormuz just because Trump asks.” Despite two weeks of war and more than 2,000 missiles and drones launched at Gulf states, no GCC country has launched a publicly claimed retaliatory strike against Iran — sources cite fear of escalation and uncertainty about “the day after.”

Banned London March Extend the War’s Ideological Front into Europe

Hundreds turned out in London Sunday for the annual Al-Quds Day march despite a Home Office ban — the first protest ban in Britain since 2012 — imposed after police determined the event was organized by a group “supportive of the Iranian regime.” The Metropolitan Police deployed approximately 1,000 officers, used the Thames as a physical barrier between demonstrators and counter-protesters, and arrested 12 people, including for showing support for a proscribed organization and threatening behavior. Protesters held posters of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, chanted “Death to the IDF” — led by Bobby Vylan, the punk-rap musician investigated and cleared by police for the same chant at Glastonbury — and waved Iranian and Palestinian flags. The absurdly named Islamic Human Rights Commission, which organizes the march, called the ban “politically charged.” On the opposite bank, counter-demonstrators waved Israeli, American, and pre-revolution Iranian flags, chanting “Long live the king” — a reference to Reza Pahlavi.

Assessment A crowd in London waving posters of a man who cannot show his face — injured, possibly incapacitated, the unelected son of a dead dictator — while the regime he nominally leads fires cluster munitions at apartment buildings in Bnei Brak. That is the ideological campaign in a single image. The Home Office ban was the right call and changed nothing operationally. The march still happened [so much for rule of law], the chants happened, the Khamenei portraits appeared. Bobby Vylan led “Death to the IDF” at Glastonbury, was investigated, was cleared, and returned to do it again — the British legal system teaching a masterclass in why deterrence requires consequences. The war provides the permission structure, the ideology provides the target list, and European law enforcement provides the gap between identifying the problem and doing anything about it.

Briefly Noted

Frontline & Security

Israel National News: The IDF struck a Hamas police vehicle at the entrance to Az-Zawayda in central Gaza, killing the commander of Hamas’s special police forces in the central Strip, Iyad Abu Youssef, and seven additional officers. Hamas is backfilling command positions as fast as Israel empties them — and the replacement pool is getting shallower.
JNS: IDF troops killed an armed terrorist in an exchange of fire during clearing operations in Rafah on Saturday; a day earlier, two additional armed Hamas operatives were eliminated in southern Gaza. No Israeli soldiers were injured in either engagement.
Jerusalem Post: Israel announced the Rafah Crossing will reopen Wednesday for limited pedestrian traffic in both directions, coordinated with Egypt, under EU supervision and with Israeli security screening along the Regavim route.

Diplomacy & Geopolitics

Jerusalem Post: A UN commission of inquiry found that since Syria’s new government seized power in December 2024, minorities — Alawites and Druze especially — have faced abductions, gang rape, forced marriage, arbitrary detention, and extrajudicial killings by armed actors including foreign fighters nominally under the Defense Ministry. At least eight abducted Alawite women were sexually assaulted; three were returned pregnant; victims who were rescued were then arrested by state forces and accused of adultery [the new Syria, same as the old Syria — just with different uniforms and its lead terrorist wearing a suit].
Israel National News: French anti-terror prosecutors arrested two brothers — ages 20 and 22, Italian-Moroccan nationals radicalized over the past two years — in northern France with a loaded weapon, hydrochloric acid, bomb making materials, and an ISIS flag. Both admitted planning a jihadist terror attack and aspired to martyrdom after concluding they could not reach Syria or the Palestinian territories. Europe’s domestic jihadist pipeline keeps producing.

Domestic & Law

Israel National News: Dozens of Haredi residents in Dimona protested outside a Super-Pharm after Mayor Benny Biton approved the pharmacy to operate on Shabbat; the municipality said sick residents need access to medication, which “in some cases is literally a matter of life and death.”

Economy, Tech & Infrastructure

Israel National News: Israel Railways launched 24-hour train service starting Sunday night to serve essential workers, security forces, and the general public under the wartime schedule. Keeping the trains running around the clock is the infrastructure equivalent of the Home Front Command’s message: the economy absorbs the hit and keeps moving.
Ynet: Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi argued that the Hormuz crisis creates a strategic opening for Israel to activate the Eilat–Ashkelon pipeline as a land-based energy corridor — linking Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline via the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, bypassing the strait entirely. The regulatory and bureaucratic friction that has stalled it for years now has a $113-per-barrel counterargument.

Culture, Religion & Society

Jerusalem Post: An investigation found 78,665 verified citations of IRGC-linked media across four Wikipedia language editions — with the actual number estimated as high as 275,000 when accounting for deleted edits and indirect narrative framing. The operation includes citation laundering, coordinated revert wars to remove critical content, and editing patterns that cluster during Tehran working hours — a state-sponsored information operation hiding in plain sight on a platform used by billions.
JNS: Haaretz ran a nearly 5,000-word profile calling Ali Larijani — the Iranian security chief the Trump administration sanctioned for ordering force against peaceful protesters, believed responsible for the deaths of thousands — a “brilliant philosopher” and “cool-headed politician” whose writings on Kant are “genuinely thought-provoking.” The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit severed ties with Haaretz in late 2025. The newspaper’s editorial trajectory since then has been to prove them right [and to make toilet paper everywhere feel maligned by comparison].
Ynet: Netanyahu released a video dismissing viral conspiracy theories claiming he had died and that his hand showed six fingers at a press conference — joking “I’m dying for coffee” before raising both hands and asking “Do you want to count the fingers?” He used the clip to urge the public to go outside but stay near shelters and said operations against Iran and in Lebanon are continuing.

Developments to Watch

Regional Axis (Iran, Houthis, Militias)

Trump weighs Kharg Island seizure — Axios reports the president is drawn to seizing Iran’s main oil export terminal outright, which would require U.S. Marines on the ground. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Iran issues civilian evacuation warnings for Dubai and Doha — The Iranian Armed Forces told Emirati and Qatari citizens that U.S. officers are “hiding” in their cities and warned those locations may be attacked “in the coming hours.” Targeting named civilian areas in allied Gulf capitals crosses from military retaliation into deliberate terror — and dares the GCC to respond. LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Gerald Ford support infrastructure declared a target — Iran’s General Staff warned that logistical and support centers servicing the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea are now legitimate targets.
Italian drone destroyed at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait — An Iranian drone struck a shelter housing an Italian remotely piloted aircraft at the U.S.-allied base; no injuries but the airframe is gone. Italy is a NATO member. Every additional allied nation that absorbs Iranian fire increases the political pressure for a collective response — and Kuwait’s patience has limits of its own.
Houthi “zero hour” still operative — No new Houthi strikes reported today, but the Political Council’s declaration of military solidarity with Iran and confirmation of joint operations rooms remain in effect; Israeli intelligence assesses the restraint is tactical, not permanent.
Iran’s internal crackdown accelerates — 500 arrested — Chief of Police Radan announced 500 citizens arrested on spying and public-order charges — 250 accused of providing intelligence on target locations to hostile groups. The regime is burning through its own population to hold the streets, and every arrest produces a family with more reason to join the next protest.

Diplomatic & Legal

Hormuz escort coalition: who’s in, who’s out — The Trump administration plans to announce a multinational naval escort mission for commercial shipping through the strait; several countries agreed in principle. Japan flatly refused. Germany ruled out NATO involvement. South Korea is deliberating.
Iran’s false-flag drone accusation — Araghchi claimed the U.S. is using a drone “identical” to Iran’s Shahed — called LUCAS — to strike Gulf states and blame Tehran; CENTCOM called it false. The accusation is an information operation aimed at fracturing Gulf-U.S. trust, and it will circulate regardless of whether anyone believes it.

Home Front & Politics

Budget vote: 15 days — The amended 2026 budget passed cabinet and cleared its first Knesset reading but must pass final votes by March 31 or the Knesset dissolves automatically. Every coalition partner with a grievance now has a countdown and a lever.

Sixteen days in, and two clocks are running. The first is military: Zamir’s Passover target, the 11,000 missiles already fired, the three-week planning window the IDF announced. The second is political: a budget vote in 15 days, a reservist request that commits the country to a second campaign-scale front, and a supreme leader who may already be dead issuing orders no one can verify through a government no one elected. Iran’s foreign minister demanded reparations. Hamas demanded total war. And in London, a crowd waved the portrait of a man the regime cannot produce.